Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
