Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
